How Sergio Perez could really upset the 2021 grid
The Portuguese Grand Prix weekend kicked off with a series of announcements. Surprisingly enough, the one regarding a driver testing positive for Covid-19 did not cause the biggest stir.
I've said it before and will probably say it plenty of time in the next few months: it's a huge feat that FOM and FIA have managed to pull off the season we're enjoying thus far amidst a pandemic sweeping the globe.
Not only that (or maybe, related to that), it's also a season that has seen plenty of surprising twists and turns so far. Unfortunately not all related to the championship, but there seems to be a specific hot topic every weekend.
This weekend, that could have been the fact that Lance Stroll tested positive for Covid-19 after the race in Germany. At home. After flying to Switzerland and being in the paddock for quite some days feeling 'not well'.
The Canadian stayed in his motorhome while Nico Hulkenberg stepped in as super-sub at Racing Point. Again. Last race weekend's hot topic. And while Hulkenberg was tested on Friday as part of the media. And then rapid-tested again by Racing Point for the German to get cleared to enter the 'drivers bubble'.
Meanwhile, Stroll was not tested after his initial test on Wednesday, while complaining about obvious Covid-related issues. He left the bubble and left the circuit before his mandatory test with the F1 staff, only to test positive when coming home.
Haas with the smokescreen
So plenty of strange decisions made by doctors, drivers and team management there. It could have easily become the hot topic of this race weekend if it wasn't for an aptly timed smokescreen - deployed by Haas F1.
Before we even had the time to fully think through the Racing Point-situation, Romain Grosjean dropped the news that he is not returning to Haas in 2021. The Frenchman published the news, then it was removed, but returned soon after. This time, it was accompanied by an official statement by Haas F1 and shortly thereafter a similar sign off by Kevin Magnussen.
Although not completely unexpected, the news dominated the Thursday pressers and had its impact well into Friday. With good reason; not only are there two coveted F1 seats up for grabs, it also kicked off a new storm of rumours around George Russell, Mick Schumacher, Nikita Mazepin, Pierre Gasly and others.
A new episode of Silly Season it is then. Let's make the rounds across all teams to see what the current status is for the 2021 grid.
Mercedes
What seemed like the most straightforward extension for 2021, is starting to take its time. And by doing so, starting to raise some eyebrows. While Mercedes already extended Valtteri Bottas for another year in August, we're still awaiting confirmation for a new deal for Lewis Hamilton.
Both Hamilton and Wolff keep repeating that they just need to find the time for what is still called 'a formality'. But in the run-up to this weekend, the tone has shifted just a bit following an ambiguous response by Hamilton regarding the question.
Either way, nothing points to a sudden exit for Hamilton, with his 7th WDC within reach and a very real option to snatch a record-breaking 8th with Mercedes next year.
Red Bull
Going on the recent quotes by team principal Horner, you would think the seats are pretty much set at Red Bull for next season as well. With Verstappen locked in for multiple seasons and Horner sticking up for Albon even through his lesser performances, it was looking at the same lineup for the Austrian team for quite a while.
But then there is always Helmut Marko to cause a stir. For the last two weeks, the advisor has fueled the already ongoing discussion regarding Albon's seat. The name of Nico Hulkenberg keeps turning up as a possible new teammate for Verstappen. An experienced driver that surely is capable of pulling in points in the right car.
This week a new rumour made the rounds, hinting at the Thai-connection within Red Bull. The Thai family recipe for the energy drink is licensed to the company, a fact that could contribute to Red Bull's mild handling of the Albon situation.
Both Horner and Marko have mentioned that they wanted to confirm their 2021 lineup before the Turkish GP, so we can expect more clarity soon.
Racing Point, Ferrari & McLaren
The situation at Racing Point for 2021 (and beyond?) has been clear since the Tuscan GP at Mugello. Four-time world champion Sebastian Vettel will join the team next year alongside Lance Stroll. The German's seat will be taken by Carlos Sainz, who makes the switch from McLaren to the Scuderia.
Over at McLaren, we see a similar situation. The team was quick to get Daniel Ricciardo on board after Carlos Sainz declared his intentions to switch to Ferrari and is now looking at the marketeer's dream with young Lando Norris and his online fanbase combined with the charming old school racer Daniel Ricciardo.
In a recent episode of Beyond The Grid, McLaren CEO Zak Brown explained quite clearly why they were so keen to get Ricciardo on board.
Renault
The French manufacturer will rebrand its F1 works team to Alpine F1 next year, putting more focus on its sports brand. After Ricciardo leaving, it was unclear if the team would go for a young driver and focus on the long term or would go to lengths to sign a new superstar to boost its image.
We can all see which way they went by looking at the line-up for next year. Esteban Ocon will be joined by two-time world champion Fernando Alonso.
Case closed right? Or is it? Maybe not, if we have to go with the rumours that went around after Pierre Gasly's congratulatory radio message to Renault after Ricciardo's third place at the Nurburgring. Apparently, the Frenchman could be brought in to replace Esteban Ocon after a very mixed first season.
AlphaTauri
Gasly's current team, AlphaTauri, recently made the promotion from junior team to sister team. Not just a semantic promotion, Red Bull really wants to level up the partnership.
But it was also a signal to Pierre Gasly, so it seemed. The Frenchman was called 'the lead driver of the sister team' by several officials after winning at Monza, making it clear that a new switch to Red Bull is not as obvious as he might hope (or think).
All the signs are showing that Yuki Tsunoda will come in to replace Daniil Kvyat, although I still wonder if Red Bull wants to drop Alex Albon completely if they decide to sign an outside driver next to Verstappen.
So a lot of speculation here. We could be looking at a Gasly/Tsunoda, Gasly/Ablon, or Albon/Tsunoda lineup next year.
Haas F1
A little bit further down the grid is where the action is, at least when it comes to rumours this weekend. Haas has decided to clean house and drop both Grosjean and Magnussen. According to team principal Gunter Steiner, the team is now looking for 'drivers with talent and money'.
The latter part of those requirements sort of puts an end to the chances of Nico Hulkenberg joining the team. Not to mention a possible reunion of the Force India crew, with Sergio Perez signing up next to Hulkenberg.
Instead, the attention is shifting to Russia. The first talks with Dmitry Mazepin, father of F2 driver Nikita Mazepin, apparently already took place. Mazepin is currently in the 6th position of the F2 championship and hasn't picked up a Superlicence yet. Lucky for him, the FIA announced a change in the licensing system this Friday, granting licences to drivers who have picked up 75% of the required points. How convenient.
Surprisingly, the second seat at Haas could go to another F2 driver: Mick Schumacher. The German driver looked set to make his debut over at Alfa Romeo/Sauber. Instead, he looks to be promoted to F1 through the Ferrari Driver Academy as part of a loyalty offer made by the Scuderia.
Although Haas has a partnership with Ferrari for several parts as well as the power unit, it is mostly still a self-reliant team that could easily be poached by another works team and become a satellite team. Something the likes of Renault would be interested in after losing their last customer in McLaren for next year.
By offering not just any talent from their FDA, but Mick Schumacher to fill the vacant seat, Ferrari would show their good intentions to Haas. If it's enough to cement a lasting relationship? Time will tell.
Alfa Romeo
The situation over at Haas and the fact that Mick Schumacher suddenly is off the table is good news for Antonio Giovinazzi. The Italian, also part of the FDA and on the 'Ferrari'-seat over at Alfa Romeo, must have had some worries about his F1 future. But things do look a bit better for now.
Not that he's completely in the clear. Ferrari also has Robert Schwarzman in its junior squad. The Russian had some great performances in F2 thus far and if Ferrari decides to focus on the younger talents, it could always promote the 21-year old Russian and demote the 26-year Giovinazzi. And let's not forget Nico Hulkenberg of course.
As for Kimi Raikkonen, it would surprise no one if he decides to extend his contract for another year. The Finn has said before that he'll stay in the sport as long as he likes the racing. We've seen him have some nice battles in the lower midfield this year, combined with the fact that he lives close to the factory and another year seems quite realistic.
Looking towards 2021, there could be little change in the driver pairing. The chances of Mick Schumacher lining up alongside Kimi are looking slim at the moment. Would have love to see how that works out, though.
Williams
But the biggest shock could take place over at Williams. After being linked to Red Bull, Haas and Alfa Romeo, it has become clear that Sergio Perez's management has had its first talks with the new Williams leaders.
The investment group Doriliton will look at all the options to get the books back to black numbers and one of those scenarios could mean replacing George Russell (Mercedes junior) with Sergio Perez and keeping the well-funded Latifi onboard as well.
With his sponsor package and stable performance, it's true that Perez has a lot to offer for Williams. And while George Russell's talent is widely acknowledged in the paddock, Williams is effectively training a driver for another team and thus investing without a return in the long run.
If the new management of Williams only focuses on the financial results in this stage of their journey, it could mean George Russell will lose his seat at the team. But if the management keeps their promise and tries to stay true to the Williams-way of thinking, it would go for an exciting Russell/Perez lineup and bid farewell to the underperforming Latifi.
To paraphrase the great Johan Cruijff: I've never seen a bag of money win a Grand Prix.
Enjoy the race weekend and if you have anything to add to the story: drop a comment!
Cheers,
Johan
📑 The Debrief
Wolff: “Russell’s future at Williams is for Williams to decide”
Toto Wolff, team principal at Mercedes, says Mercedes has no part the decision Williams would make regarding George Russell. Wolff confirms he has been in contact with Williams about the position of the Mercedes junior driver, but it was “just to touch base. [..] At the end, it’s their call”
How could Williams justify dropping Russell for Perez?
In the run-up to Fridays practice sessions, Williams refused to confirm their current line-up for next year and by doing so fueling the Perez-rumours. Odd, since George Russell was pretty much confirmed for 2021 earlier this season. But there could be good reason for Williams to track back on that decision.
Why has Lewis Hamilton not signed a new deal at Mercedes yet?
While discussing his possible renewal at Mercedes with The Race this Thursday, Lewis Hamilton reiterated that it was all ‘a formality’, but his wording overall was a bit less emphatic than earlier in the season.
Haas and Alfa Romeo wary of Red Bulls ‘engine freeze’ proposal
Red Bull Racing is looking for a development freeze for F1 engines between 2022 and 2025. It’s no surprise that Ferrari as well as it customers Haas and Alfa Romeo expressed their concerns.
Mercedes CEO: “Would have been crazy to leave F1”
Ola Kallenius, CEO of Mercedes, said the manufacturer would have been “crazy” to leave F1, based on the direction the sport is heading.